{"id":35376,"date":"2021-10-06T15:51:47","date_gmt":"2021-10-06T19:51:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/researchdev\/2021\/10\/06\/heat-motion-sloshes-pacific-ocean-and-shifts-weather-forecasts-2\/"},"modified":"2021-10-06T15:51:47","modified_gmt":"2021-10-06T19:51:47","slug":"heat-motion-sloshes-pacific-ocean-and-shifts-weather-forecasts-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/research\/2021\/10\/06\/heat-motion-sloshes-pacific-ocean-and-shifts-weather-forecasts-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Heat motion \u2018sloshes\u2019 Pacific Ocean and shifts weather forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A study out of the Lassonde School of Engineering discovers new ways the Pacific Ocean is circulating, which may hold the key to better predicting the impact of El Ni\u00f1o and La<\/em><\/strong> Ni\u00f1a.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For years, scientists have been trying to understand variations in El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a to accurately predict year-to-year disruptions to weather patterns. New findings from ¿ì²¥ÊÓƵ scientists at the Lassonde School of Engineering suggest that a conveyer-like motion of heat across the equator in the Pacific Ocean \u2013 called the \u201ccross-equatorial cell\u201d (CEC) \u2013 may influence what a specific El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a looks like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat this CEC is doing, essentially, is sloshing water and heat back and forth between just north of the equator and just south of the equator,\u201d said Neil Tandon<\/strong>, assistant professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science at the Lassonde School of Engineering and co-author of the study. \u201cIn this study, we looked at what is physically causing this motion in the ocean. Understanding this is crucial, because a small change in the location of ocean heat in turn shifts the locations of the atmospheric jet streams, which sets off a chain reaction, disturbing weather around the globe.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a are both known to have global impacts on weather, from severe flooding to droughts and wildfires \u2013 impacting economies in every country. El Ni\u00f1o is a warming of the ocean in the tropical Pacific over a year, while La Ni\u00f1a is a cooling in this region. But not all El Ni\u00f1os and La Ni\u00f1as are the same: some are stronger than others, and they can arise in different locations in the Pacific Ocean. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tandon says the movement of heat by the CEC may help explain this range of behaviour and improve our ability to predict year-to-year changes in weather patterns. Such improvements would benefit countries around the globe across a broad range of sectors, including agriculture, transportation, emergency response services, hydroelectric utilities and the insurance industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen scientists see that there\u2019s going to be a strong El Ni\u00f1o or a strong La Ni\u00f1a, everybody pays attention because no country is unaffected by that,\u201d said Tandon. \u201cIf we can make any incremental step in improving our prediction of the impact of El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a, that has benefits for everybody in terms of being able to prepare for consequences such as severe flooding or droughts.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tandon and lead author Devanarayana Rao<\/strong>, a master\u2019s student in Tandon\u2019s lab, examined the CEC using multiple data sets. In the study, the team analyzed relationships between physical quantities to illustrate what this circulation looks like and why this circulation exists. Their analysis found that the CEC arises from the following sequence of events:<\/p>\n\n\n\n